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Prediction for CME (2025-04-13T00:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-04-13T00:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38351/-1
CME Note: SE halo (especially in SOHO) CME, with the start obscured by the nighttime data gap in STEREO A but available from the start in SOHO LASCO. The CME is partly obscured in C3 imagery by the pylon. The CME is directed to the SE in COR2A (as seen after the gap). The source of this CME is a filament eruption extending from N10E15 to S30E15, as seen in SDO AIA 304, 193, 171 and GOES SUVI 284, 304. Post-eruptive arcades are also seen in STEREO A EUV imagery after the end of data gap. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-15T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-04-17T23:30Z (-13.26h, +9.64h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2025/04/12 22:40Z
Plane of Sky 1: 14:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 15:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction
POS Difference: 1:40
POS Midpoint: 15:50Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 17:10

Numeric View/Impact Type: 
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.04
Travel Time: ~7.04 * 17:10 = 120:50

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-04-17T23:30Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/04/13 16:08Z

Lead Time: 47.45 hour(s)
Difference: -54.90 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-04-13T17:09Z

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